Essentially what it boils down to is the notion of conditional probability. Since vaccines are happening later in pregnancy for most women, they have already passed much of the risk of a stillbirth. The probability of stillbirth for a vaccinated woman, given they have already made it this far in their pregnancy, should be lower than the probability of a stillbirth at the beginning of pregnancy. Question for you: do you know in which reports the vaccine & pregnancy data has changed?
It first appeared in 2021-47. Then then copy/pasted that into every subsequent report up to, and including, 2022-03. Basically they had a data dump up to end August and reused it without changing the analysis.
The most recent report, the one from this blog entry, is the first one in which it has changed since it first appeared: 2022-04. They apply a new data dump up to end October.
For more intuition- suppose the policy of the doctors was to give the vaccine to women on the way into the delivery room (and not before for any pregnant woman). In this case, we would expect essentially 0 stillbirths. Saying vaccinated women never had stillbirths would be very misleading. Same principle is involved when many women the vaccine in their 3rd trimester.
Thanks for boiling it down. I intend to get into it in depth. The other angle is of course miscarriage which they are studiously ignoring, as far as I can tell.
I need to dig into the updated data, but here was the final post (with links to previous ones) when I 1st dug into the pregnancy data: https://inumero.substack.com/p/uk-vaccines-and-pregnancy-part-3
Thanks for this. I think I'm going to have to read it over carefully a few more times to fully understand - it's a pretty deep analysis.
Do you have any thoughts on miscarriage? Despite references in the footnotes, it is a topic altogether absent from the data in the main UKHSA report.
Essentially what it boils down to is the notion of conditional probability. Since vaccines are happening later in pregnancy for most women, they have already passed much of the risk of a stillbirth. The probability of stillbirth for a vaccinated woman, given they have already made it this far in their pregnancy, should be lower than the probability of a stillbirth at the beginning of pregnancy. Question for you: do you know in which reports the vaccine & pregnancy data has changed?
It first appeared in 2021-47. Then then copy/pasted that into every subsequent report up to, and including, 2022-03. Basically they had a data dump up to end August and reused it without changing the analysis.
The most recent report, the one from this blog entry, is the first one in which it has changed since it first appeared: 2022-04. They apply a new data dump up to end October.
For more intuition- suppose the policy of the doctors was to give the vaccine to women on the way into the delivery room (and not before for any pregnant woman). In this case, we would expect essentially 0 stillbirths. Saying vaccinated women never had stillbirths would be very misleading. Same principle is involved when many women the vaccine in their 3rd trimester.
Thanks for boiling it down. I intend to get into it in depth. The other angle is of course miscarriage which they are studiously ignoring, as far as I can tell.