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T Coddington's avatar

Forgive me, but have you written somewhere on how you are estimating the population of the double-dosed after they stopped producing the necessary numbers to calculate that in the weekly reports? I have recently modified how I doing the estimate & would not mind comparing notes.

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Abhijit Bakshi's avatar

Yes absolutely. I'm currently using a separate report from UKHSA, the "National Flu and COVID-19 Surveillance Report", to estimate the number. It took me a while to reverse engineer all the VLOOKUPs in my spreadsheet, as I'm very much a fire-and-forget type of person, but here is a description of the process, which is actually pretty simple:

- The flu report is released on the same cadence as the "Vaccine Surveillance Report".

- It contains a detailed COVID "vaccine" uptake table by age group, where the columns of the table contain actual population sizes.

- Since this table has finer-grained age categories, I aggregate them into the larger age groups used in the "Vaccine Surveillance Report".

- Then I average the population size per age group over 4 weeks to get an "average population" number which I use in calculations against the four week sliding window numbers given in tables 10 through 12(b) in the "Vaccine Surveillance Report".

Latest Flu report:

- https://web.archive.org/web/20220310150229/https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1060025/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w10_2.pdf

Weekly release page:

- https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season

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