Previous posts in series: Wane’s world | #45 | #46 | #47
This series graphs COVID-19 “vaccine” efficacy in the UK using the Public Health England UK Health Security Agency weekly vaccine surveillance report data, and the efficacy formulas used by our very scientific friends at Pfizer and Moderna. This iteration graphs the report for week 48.
Notable:
New context graphs added below the efficacy graphs to help show the bigger picture of what is taking place in the UK in 2021, year of the “vaccine”.
Efficacy against infection still falling in 18–29 and 30–39. Just above zero for 18–29 and roughly minus 50% for 30–39. These are groups that got their health juice more recently (still aging into the efficacy fade) and would not yet be included in the boosters.
Third dose booster campaign began September 16 and has now reached 23.9% of the total population. This is incredible. Since only 61.7% of the total population has received a second dose, this means they have already boosted almost 40% of the people who had previously gotten a second dose.
This explains why we are seeing apparent turnaround in efficacy against infection in the older age categories, with the steepest positive slope in the 70–79 and 80+ categories where they’ve been boosting them the longest, and no doubt the hardest.
Efficacy against hospitalization and death still seem to be falling for 40–49 and 50–59, but turning around in older age groups and we can expect the booster campaign effect will start to show here in the next few weeks.
Efficacy Graphs:
In all the above graphs, the lines represent the efficacy percentage of the COVID-19 injectable pharmaceutical products based on applying the calculations used by Pfizer and Moderna in their phase 3 clinical trial interim results to the UKSA vaccine surveillance report data. Methodology is described in the first post, Wane’s world.
The x-axis is UKSA report week. The y-axes are efficacy percent, where 100% percent efficacy means the experimental shots are totally effective at preventing everything, 0% efficacy means they are no better than placebo, and negative efficacy means bad things indeed. Efficacy against death and hospitalization are on the left y-axis. Efficacy against infection is on the right y-axis. The right axis goes all the way down to -140% because of how bad the data have been for efficacy against infection.
Context Graphs:
The first graph above shows the percent of the UK population who have been injected with at least one snifter of the COVID-19 injectable pharmaceutical products. The dose 3 campaign (boosters) started on September 16, but we only have data about the percentage of people they stuck with it in the week 47 and 48 reports.
The next three graphs show the state of the epidemic in terms of infections in the UK based on data from the report. There is one graph each for infections (“cases”), hospitalizations, and deaths. The blue line is for people who have received at least 1 snifter. The red line is for people who have been injected at least twice, and it includes one-dose people (blue line), two-dose people, and also boosted people. The black line indicates the “purebloods”, or those who have never once been shot full of science juice. The x-axis is weeks, just as it is for the efficacy graphs. The y-axis is the absolute number tallied for infections, hospitalizations, or deaths, as the case may be. Please note that each UKSA weekly report includes 3 weeks of data in its tallies, so the “real” weekly rate is roughly 1/3 of what these tallies show.
The graph below shows excess mortality in England and Wales and is taken from mortality.org’s Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations, using 2010-2019 as a baseline. I’ll work on improving this graph in subsequent weeks.
Other Remarks:
On October, the UK government created the UK Health Security Authority, which took over the data reporting previously done by Public Health England. They switched up the letterhead on the report from PHE to UKSA on week 39 and I didn’t notice it until now. I find the new name to be incredibly creepy. It reminds me how after 9/11 the US government rolled a bunch of alphabet soup agencies into the Department of Homeland Security, and inaugurated (or maybe supersized) the national security state/surveillance state in America. We can hope this Orwellian new agency name doesn’t portend a similar extension of the UK government into the medical lives of its subjects, but this will only be hope…
You can find eugyppius’ take on the same report here: